As usual we start with a round of the geopolitical situation with some signs of improvement in China-US relations, good news about Korea chipmaking in China, and the disaster in Israel and the potential impact on South Korea.  This includes updates on the prospects for 2024.

In our September meeting we discussed the limited options to expand exports significantly without progressing into the upswing of the semiconductor cycle, or a general recovery of the global economy.   Since the prospects for the remainder of 2023 look disappointing and not much better for 2024 we spent the October session discussing the state of the domestic economy and whether there are measures that could increase growth.  The domestic economy shows some growth points in corporate investment, but also serious problems in housing and construction.  There are possible initiatives in the energy transition, the green economy and shifts in the domestic economy and employment.  For the second chance event we will have BOK’s Q3 GDP advanced estimate and October’s export figures to add to the analysis, which remains fairly gloomy.

To do this we needed to look back to earlier in the 2010s when exports did not grow, but the economy achieved a growth rate around 2.5%.   President Yoon is against using a stimulus mainly for ideological reasons related to a desire to reduce government debt, despite the measures that most other advanced countries are beginning to pursue.  President Park’s DPM, Dr Hyun a distinguished economist pursued the goal of making government enterprise more efficient and reduce its debt which contributed a rebalancing to the government’s budget and domestic economy.   He could not join us but offered some comments on the situation then and now.

Join us for an in-depth discussion on the present and future state of the Korean economy and the future opportunities.

Yours sincerely