The KABC Online Second Chance Korea Business Forum

Korea between the US and China

This month’s Second Chance Korea Business Forum will be held in 
8.00am-9.30am Friday, 5 July 2024 at the Online Seminar Room (Zoom)

In June we had a much needed discussion about how we see Korea’s geopolitical and geoeconomic position evolving, and what the implications are for business and investment in Korea.

How we look at this depends partly on our current perspectives and expectations of the future relations between the US and China and the home office view of this trajectory.  We are partly also conditioned by what we read.  After the CJK summit, the New York Times had an article “China, Japan, Korea hold a regional summit overshadowed by the US”.  At these much needed trilateral talks the three sides approached their common interests on a number of important issues as far as I can see and left the elephant of US relations outside the room.

The trilateral talks and accompanying bilateral talks are a good place to start in considering where we stand.  We will then work back to our perception of China in 2024-5 and the US in 2024-5 and the current level of deterioration between them.  This includes a discussion of de-risking not only in relation to China but also preparing for the possibility of the need for derisking in dealing with a Trump2 administration.   As the slides will show, there is a fairly dramatic rise in exports to the US and a comparatively slow recovery of exports to China alongside a diversion of exports that once went to China and are now going to the Plus1 countries in the (China Plus 1 strategy).  ASEAN received almost the same value of exports in May 2024 as the US and China.

Throughout our session we were fortunate to have online the former Minister Yeo (Trade Minister 2021-22) who is currently at the premier economic think tank of the US the Peterson Institute for International Economics who offered his perspectives. I will also add a slide about technological threats to Korea which several people raised.

We will start the second chance meeting with a quick economic and political roundup with the 22nd National Assembly then in its 21st day of its four year life).  Since May 23 we have a new BOK forecast and more feedback on export growth with June export figures– if every month were like June, Korea come close to reaching its US$700 bn target for 2024.

Please join us online on July5th.

July’s KBF will be held on July 18th and will be on the Future of the Chaebol.

DATE Change  August’s KBF will be on the 22nd of August.

Yours sincerely

Tony Michell Ph.D
Managing Director, KABC Ltd.


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    Published On: July 2nd, 2024 / Categories: Event, Korea Business Forum /

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