On February 15^th we have the opportunity to have our main meeting at the Swiss Embassy by kind invitation of  Ambassador Dagmar Schmidt. Our online second chance meeting will be on March 5

In our February KBF session we looked at three things, the Q4 GDP results which indicate a potential for the Korean GDP to grow faster than forecast, but with a limited spillover effect from the export sector to the bulk of the economy which remains depressed.

I argued that the GDP uptick was too late for Korean electors to feel much difference in the elections in early April and it is time to look in depth at how the different parties are shaping up and the prospects for who will be elected and who will not.  Basic information on the two major parties and a brief review of small parties and arrangements for the proportional representation vote and some thoughts about the consequences of a PPP win and of a DPK win are required.

The main substance of the discussion then turned to the financial underpinnings of Korea Inc, national debt, household debt and corporate debt given that the majority of Korean experts named the debt issue as the major threat to the Korean economy in 2024. I do not see it as a threat but rather a brake on government policy options.  While household debt gets the main focus and government debt as a ratio to GDP comes second, probably more important in the short term is corporate debt which in an age of higher interest rates limits expansion and investment.

Please join us if you missed the main event and do not forget to join us on March 21st when we will talk about FDI progress

Yours sincerely