The KABC Korea Business Forum

Bubbles Ahead: The Prospects for the Korean Economy in 2022

8.00am – 10.00am, Thursday 20 January 2022 at the Online Seminar Room


Dear member,

As usual our January session is concerned with the prospects for Korea in 2022.   It has been said that the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable( Ezra Solomon) To the contrary the purpose of economic forecasting is to make businesses look at their business plans for the coming year and make adjustments or take precautionary measures.

We are looking at Korean economy and society which faces a series of challenges in the coming year.  Underlying the consensus forecast of about 3% GDP growth (BOK, KDI) 3.1% ( MOEF) (built on around 4% in 2021). KDI’s latest newsletter states the downside risks are the dominant theme in considering these prospects.  We have the ambitious plan to cover no less than 9 of the risks in our January 20 session.

  1. First is whether Korea’s next President will understand all the challenges of the changing world?
  2. What are virus’s plans for 2022 – more delta, more omicron, deltacron, pi,rho, sigma?  And how do we respond?
  3. Exports have been the driver of much of 2021’s growth.  The growth in value of exports in 2021 was 25.8%.  The consensus forecast for 2022 is 3-5% export growth by value.  Do 2021 prices stick or contract? 
  4. The US is trying to build a US oriented global supply chain, enlisting Korea as it does, but the pre 2020 supply chain was a China based supply chain.  China is largely excluded from this US vision.   Korea is conflicted in this transition, with implications for Korea’s open supply chain to be converted to a future closed US supply chain.
  5. About one third of the households and one third of SMEs (perhaps higher in both categories) are bleeding to debt.  But the government wishes to constrain household debt to GDP ratios (myth of the time bomb).
  6. The presence of bubbles, spikes and airpockets (housing, chip demand, oil, gas) largely  is sending the wrong signals to investors and producers and cutting across what should be the lesson from the supply chain difficulties of 2021
  7. Long covid socio-economic issues in debt hangover, education deficits and changes in work place habits and capabilities are eating at part of the core of future growth prospects
  8. COP-26 succeeded in putting GHG at the top of the agenda, but did not make the message urgent enough, especially to busy people trying to do something else
  9. The return of inflationary uncertainty is complicating all these issues.  Are we having a price spike or are we back in the early 1980s?  At the extreme end what is the value of anything in the economy?

If you are interested in seeing how we approach these issues, and how they could affect your business or organisation please join us for our first KBF session of 2022.   We are waiting to see if the restrictions on meetings due to end on January 16 to decided whether the meeting will be purely on line or hybrid.

Yours sincerely,

Tony Michell
Managing Director, KABC Ltd.


    Name *:



    Email address* :

    Mobile Phone :

    Promotion code :

    Agreement* :
    Confirmed ​I agree to the below collection and use policy of personal information.

    [Personal information collection and use policy]

    1. Types of personal information collected and purpose of use
    The types of personal information collected through this page and the purpose of use are as follows.
    1) Types of personal information to be collected: name, e-mail address
    2) Purpose of use of collected personal information: Information on Korea Business Forum and related events through e-mail, and delivery of related information

    2. Processing and retention period of personal information
    1) The Korea Business Forum retains and processes personal information within the period of retention and use of personal information agreed upon when collecting personal information from the information subject, or the retention and use period of personal information in accordance with laws and regulations.
    2) The retention period of the collected personal information is until the business processing specified in the purpose of use is completed, and the collected personal information is destroyed as soon as the business processing is completed.

    * Required

    Published On: January 10th, 2022 / Categories: Event, Korea Business Forum /

    The organisation that anticipates change and is always ready

    We are always awake, quickly understands information, and always thinks about and prepares strategies to respond to it.


    KABC has extensive experience in strategic studies, change management, and mergers and acquisitions.

    Learn more


    We regard ourselves as masters of Korean statistics which comes from macroeconomic as well as microeconomic work.

    Learn more


    KABC provides information services to foreign companies operating in Korea and foreign governments in Korea.

    Learn more


    KABC provides information services to foreign companies operating in Korea and foreign governments in Korea.

    Learn more