Every year in August KABC forecasts the future growth of Korea (and check on how we did last year.) This year we have a lot to discuss. In August 2023 the evidence is that Korea is running well behind its consensus forecast of about 1.3% on an early view of Q3 data. This will have a likely knock on effect on 2024 growth. Further forecasts for the US economy are that while avoiding recession growth will remain historically low in 2024, while 70% of growth is forecast to occur in Asia, dynamically affecting export markets.
Essentially Korea needs to retain space to deal with China economically in its own national interest and not that of the US administration and Congress. Successfully achieved Korea becomes a platform for both US and Chinese investment. But pressure will rise on allied nations to toe the US line on dealing with China and there is a lot of room for an extra burden. 2024 will be a rough year politically in the US with the possibility that Trump will be returned in the November elections and take office in January 2025.
Korea also has an important general election set for April 2024 in which the President hopes that his party will take control of the National Assembly and set the scene for changes in the last three years of his administration. If this is not achieved a new consensus on what is important will be required.
Korean business will continue to have to adapt to changing geopolitics. The session will end with a list of key dates where events will determine the trajectory of the Korean economy.
Join us to debate all these issues and create new ideas for engaging in the Korean market either in person in the Hyatt or online. We are in the Sansu room so online communications should have no blips – if joining on line we suggest you log in at 8.05 to let the in person attendees settle. If you miss the main event the second chance meeting will be held in early September. Several important points were raised in the Second Chance meeting in early August which will be addressed either in the meeting on the 17th or on our website www.kabcltd.com where you can find the programme for the rest of the year.