In 2020 Korea crossed the demographic turning point where the number of deaths exceeded the number of births. That the birth rate in Korea is the lowest in the world is well known, and the impact is being felt in a wide range of areas of economic and social life. There are related factors in that the number of unmarried men and women in the thirties has risen dramatically to 42% according to the new data from the 2020 census. Hence it is a good time to think about the five year and ten year horizon of all organizations and changes associated with the change in population.
The changes are already affecting education, consumer patterns, the military, the number of new entrants to the workforce, the spending of the government and its revenue and the task of providing social services and welfare for the over 65s in a country which has the highest ratio of poverty amongst old people in the OECD and a suicide rate three times the average of the OECD. Even the sharp rise in household debt is related.
There are other issues related to the expected number of foreigners living in Korea and the percentage of births to families in which one parent is foreign currently 5.5% but likely to be closer to 10% by 2030.
From a business point of view
- Consumers are changing – fewer youngers and more olders and many more singles of all ages
- What people buy is changing accordingly
- A new gap between young and old in the work place and in everyday life is appearing
- Car ownership will peak and then decline as old people give up their licences
- Housing demand will change fairly dramatically as the number of households with a family with decline and singles grow rapidly.
- The number of taxpayers and particularly 4 insurance payers will shrink
- The price of alba labour should increase
- Some skills and unskills will be impossible to find
- More industry will move offshore and imports will grow rapidly
Join us on October 21st to discuss the implications of all these issue, along with the economic and pandemic monthly update
Managing Director, KABC Ltd.